A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
